Likvidita

Akcie dlouhodobě rostou tam, kam přitékají volné peníze. Tahle stránka sleduje, jestli se ve finančním systému hotovost hromadí, nebo z něj mizí – od rezerv bank u Fedu přes růst peněžní zásoby proti inflaci až po „suchý prach“ zaparkovaný ve fondech peněžního trhu. Žádný z ukazatelů není obchodní signál; dohromady ale říkají, jestli trhu fouká do plachet.

Čistá likvidita ve finančním systému USA (bil. USD) Bilance Fedu minus účet ministerstva financí (TGA) a reverzní repo (ON RRP), týdně. Peníze v TGA a RRP jsou z trhu odčerpané – čára ukazuje skutečně volné rezervy. Čárkovaně celková bilance Fedu pro srovnání.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumČistá likviditaBilance Fedu celkem
2024-01-03 6.27.68
2024-01-10 6.267.69
2024-01-17 6.337.67
2024-01-24 6.247.68
2024-01-31 6.177.63
2024-02-07 6.287.63
2024-02-14 6.227.63
2024-02-21 6.227.58
2024-02-28 6.217.57
2024-03-06 6.317.54
2024-03-13 6.257.54
2024-03-20 6.217.51
2024-03-27 6.167.48
2024-04-03 6.237.44
2024-04-10 6.297.44
2024-04-17 6.177.41
2024-04-24 6.027.4
2024-05-01 6.017.36
2024-05-08 6.017.35
2024-05-15 6.077.3
2024-05-22 6.087.3
2024-05-29 6.127.28
2024-06-05 6.177.26
2024-06-12 6.147.26
2024-06-19 6.157.25
2024-06-26 5.987.23
2024-07-03 6.037.22
2024-07-10 6.077.22
2024-07-17 6.067.21
2024-07-24 6.037.21
2024-07-31 5.987.18
2024-08-07 6.127.18
2024-08-14 6.067.18
2024-08-21 6.087.14
2024-08-28 5.997.12
2024-09-04 6.047.11
2024-09-11 6.087.12
2024-09-18 6.037.11
2024-09-25 5.867.08
2024-10-02 5.877.05
2024-10-09 5.97.05
2024-10-16 5.987.04
2024-10-23 5.937.03
2024-10-30 5.957.01
2024-11-06 5.976.99
2024-11-13 5.96.97
2024-11-20 5.956.92
2024-11-27 5.966.91
2024-12-04 5.946.9
2024-12-11 5.946.9
2024-12-18 5.996.89
2024-12-25 5.946.89
2025-01-01 5.666.85
2025-01-08 6.026.85
2025-01-15 6.076.83
2025-01-22 6.036.83
2025-01-29 5.916.82
2025-02-05 5.936.81
2025-02-12 5.926.81
2025-02-19 5.926.78
2025-02-26 5.966.77
2025-03-05 6.076.76
2025-03-12 6.126.76
2025-03-19 6.136.76
2025-03-26 6.146.74
2025-04-02 6.186.72
2025-04-09 6.256.73
2025-04-16 6.256.73
2025-04-23 5.956.73
2025-04-30 5.866.71
2025-05-07 5.976.71
2025-05-14 5.976.71
2025-05-21 6.026.69
2025-05-28 6.036.67
2025-06-04 6.136.67
2025-06-11 6.146.68
2025-06-18 6.146.68
2025-06-25 6.096.66
2025-07-02 6.066.66
2025-07-09 6.116.66
2025-07-16 6.176.66
2025-07-23 6.146.66
2025-07-30 6.126.64
2025-08-06 6.136.64
2025-08-13 6.086.64
2025-08-20 6.066.62
2025-08-27 5.986.6
2025-09-03 5.996.6
2025-09-10 5.96.61
2025-09-17 5.846.61
2025-09-24 5.776.61
2025-10-01 5.776.59
2025-10-08 5.786.59
2025-10-15 5.786.6
2025-10-22 5.686.59
2025-10-29 5.616.59
2025-11-05 5.626.57
2025-11-12 5.626.58
2025-11-19 5.616.56
2025-11-26 5.656.55
2025-12-03 5.66.54
2025-12-10 5.686.54
2025-12-17 5.716.56
2025-12-24 5.746.58
2025-12-31 5.76.64
2026-01-07 5.776.57
2026-01-14 5.86.58
2026-01-21 5.716.58
2026-01-28 5.666.59
2026-02-04 5.696.61
2026-02-11 5.716.62
2026-02-18 5.76.61
2026-02-25 5.736.61
2026-03-04 5.86.63
2026-03-11 5.816.65
2026-03-18 5.86.66
2026-03-25 5.786.66
2026-04-01 5.836.68
2026-04-08 5.956.69
2026-04-15 5.956.71
2026-04-22 5.76.71
2026-04-29 5.726.7
2026-05-06 5.836.71
2026-05-13 5.896.73
2026-05-20 5.916.71
2026-05-27 5.876.7
2026-06-03 5.836.71
2026-06-10 5.96.73
2026-06-17 5.856.74
2026-06-24 5.816.74
2026-07-01 5.846.72
2026-07-08 5.966.74
2026-07-15 5.996.74
2026-07-22 5.926.75
2026-07-29 5.826.74
2026-08-05 5.846.75
2026-08-12 5.86.76
2026-08-19 5.796.75
2026-08-26 5.786.73
USA: růst peněz vs inflace (meziročně, %) Roste-li peněžní zásoba M2 rychleji než spotřebitelské ceny (plná čára nad čárkovanou), reálné likvidity přibývá a přebytek historicky teče do finančních aktiv. Opačná situace (2022) likviditu z trhu vysává.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumPeněžní zásoba M2 (meziročně)Inflace CPI (meziročně)
2024-01-01 -2.063.09
2024-02-01 -1.53.16
2024-03-01 0.113.49
2024-04-01 0.953.36
2024-05-01 0.923.24
2024-06-01 1.312.97
2024-07-01 1.472.94
2024-08-01 1.972.61
2024-09-01 2.512.43
2024-10-01 2.892.58
2024-11-01 3.42.72
2024-12-01 3.412.87
2025-01-01 3.382.99
2025-02-01 3.282.8
2025-03-01 3.432.38
2025-04-01 3.892.33
2025-05-01 3.872.38
2025-06-01 4.142.68
2025-07-01 4.392.74
2025-08-01 4.252.94
2025-09-01 4.233.02
2025-11-01 3.852.7
2025-12-01 4.042.65
2026-01-01 4.062.39
2026-02-01 4.592.43
2026-03-01 4.413.29
2026-04-01 4.533.78
2026-05-01 5.394.17
2026-06-01 5.343.46
2026-07-01 5.413.3
Eurozóna: růst peněz vs inflace (meziročně, %) Totéž pro eurozónu: peněžní zásoba M3 vs inflace HICP. Evropská a americká likvidita se občas rozejdou – pak se rozcházejí i trhy.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumPeněžní zásoba M3 (meziročně)Inflace HICP (meziročně)
2024-01-01 0.122.8
2024-02-01 0.322.6
2024-03-01 0.842.4
2024-04-01 1.432.4
2024-05-01 1.52.6
2024-06-01 2.42.5
2024-07-01 2.552.6
2024-08-01 3.222.2
2024-09-01 3.471.7
2024-10-01 3.742
2024-11-01 4.292.2
2024-12-01 4.132.4
2025-01-01 4.172.5
2025-02-01 4.412.3
2025-03-01 4.092.2
2025-04-01 4.152.2
2025-05-01 4.161.9
2025-06-01 3.452
2025-07-01 3.412
2025-08-01 2.822
2025-09-01 2.682.2
2025-10-01 3.022.1
2025-11-01 2.912.1
2025-12-01 2.62
2026-01-01 3.23–
2026-02-01 3.02–
2026-03-01 3.63–
2026-04-01 3.35–
2026-05-01 3.59–
2026-06-01 4.04–
2026-07-01 4.05–
Kde se hromadí hotovost (meziroční růst, %) Vklady v amerických bankách (celá ekonomika) a retailové fondy peněžního trhu (hotovost investorů „na parkovišti“). Zrychlující růst obou = hotovost se hromadí; jejich rozestup ukazuje rotaci mezi bankou a brokerem.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumVklady v bankách (meziročně)Retail fondy peněžního trhu (meziročně)
2024-01-01 -1.1836.19
2024-02-01 -134.05
2024-03-01 1.9930.8
2024-04-01 2.0128.09
2024-05-01 1.2725.38
2024-06-01 1.6723.87
2024-07-01 2.0522.82
2024-08-01 2.221.18
2024-09-01 2.2520.29
2024-10-01 3.0219.43
2024-11-01 3.3318.52
2024-12-01 2.5417.99
2025-01-01 2.3117.41
2025-02-01 2.7417.22
2025-03-01 2.6318.31
2025-04-01 3.1217.54
2025-05-01 3.4716.96
2025-06-01 3.7816.69
2025-07-01 3.5616.44
2025-08-01 3.9816.21
2025-09-01 3.8415.52
2025-10-01 3.3514.5
2025-11-01 3.6913.75
2025-12-01 3.9613.37
2026-01-01 4.1912.25
2026-02-01 4.8610.69
2026-03-01 5.28.85
2026-04-01 5.68.17
2026-05-01 6.417.82
2026-06-01 6.227.11
2026-07-01 5.96.1
Trh vs peněžní zásoba: S&P 500 / M2 (index, od 2015) Jak daleko utekl trh svému peněžnímu krytí. Poměr vysoko nad pětiletým průměrem (čárkovaně) znamená, že růst stojí na vyšších valuacích, ne na nových penězích – trh je pak citlivější na výpadek likvidity.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumS&P 500 / M2 (index)Pětiletý průměr poměru
2015-01-01 142.7128
2015-02-01 149.1128.5
2015-03-01 146.5128.9
2015-04-01 147.3129.3
2015-05-01 148.5129.8
2015-06-01 144.9130.1
2015-07-01 147.3130.5
2015-08-01 137.5130.6
2015-09-01 133.2130.7
2015-10-01 143.6130.9
2015-11-01 142.6131.1
2015-12-01 139.3131.3
2016-01-01 130.8131.3
2016-02-01 129.4131.3
2016-03-01 137.4131.4
2016-04-01 136.9131.5
2016-05-01 138.3131.6
2016-06-01 137.9131.7
2016-07-01 142.2131.9
2016-08-01 141.1132
2016-09-01 140.3132.7
2016-10-01 136.8133.1
2016-11-01 140.5133.7
2016-12-01 142.8134.2
2017-01-01 144.5134.7
2017-02-01 149135.2
2017-03-01 148.2135.7
2017-04-01 148.9136.2
2017-05-01 150.1136.8
2017-06-01 150.7137.4
2017-07-01 152.9138.1
2017-08-01 152.4138.7
2017-09-01 154.8139.3
2017-10-01 157.6140
2017-11-01 161.4140.7
2017-12-01 162.6141.5
2018-01-01 171.5142.4
2018-02-01 164.3143.1
2018-03-01 159.1143.7
2018-04-01 159.3144.2
2018-05-01 162.1144.7
2018-06-01 162.4145.3
2018-07-01 167.8145.9
2018-08-01 172.3146.7
2018-09-01 172.7147.4
2018-10-01 160.6147.8
2018-11-01 163.1148.2
2018-12-01 147.1148.3
2019-01-01 157.9148.7
2019-02-01 162.1149
2019-03-01 164.4149.4
2019-04-01 170.4149.9
2019-05-01 158150.2
2019-06-01 167.8150.5
2019-07-01 169.1151
2019-08-01 165151.3
2019-09-01 167151.7
2019-10-01 168.9152
2019-11-01 173.3152.4
2019-12-01 177.7152.9
2020-01-01 176.6153.5
2020-02-01 161153.7
2020-03-01 136.1153.5
2020-04-01 144.1153.4
2020-05-01 143.3153.3
2020-06-01 144153.3
2020-07-01 150.7153.4
2020-08-01 160.5153.8
2020-09-01 152.6154.1
2020-10-01 147.2154.2
2020-11-01 160.9154.5
2020-12-01 165.9154.9
2021-01-01 161.9155.4
2021-02-01 163.8156
2021-03-01 168.8156.5
2021-04-01 175157.2
2021-05-01 173.5157.7
2021-06-01 177.2158.4
2021-07-01 179.9159
2021-08-01 183.2159.7
2021-09-01 173.3160.3
2021-10-01 183.7161.1
2021-11-01 180.7161.7
2021-12-01 187.2162.5
2022-01-01 176.1163
2022-02-01 170163.3
2022-03-01 175.6163.8
2022-04-01 160.3164
2022-05-01 160.7164.2
2022-06-01 147.7164.1
2022-07-01 161.1164.3
2022-08-01 154.3164.3
2022-09-01 140.5164
2022-10-01 152.3164
2022-11-01 160.9164
2022-12-01 152.3163.8
2023-01-01 161.8163.6
2023-02-01 157.8163.5
2023-03-01 165.7163.6
2023-04-01 169.6163.8
2023-05-01 169.4163.9
2023-06-01 180.7164.2
2023-07-01 186.4164.5
2023-08-01 183.1164.7
2023-09-01 174.5164.7
2023-10-01 170.8164.9
2023-11-01 185.9165.3
2023-12-01 193.8166.1
2024-01-01 196.4166.7
2024-02-01 205.7167.4
2024-03-01 211.6168.2
2024-04-01 202.9168.8
2024-05-01 212169.7
2024-06-01 218.8170.5
2024-07-01 221171.4
2024-08-01 225.1172.4
2024-09-01 228.7173.4
2024-10-01 225.8174.4
2024-11-01 237.4175.4
2024-12-01 231.1176.3
2025-01-01 236.8177.3
2025-02-01 232.7178.5
2025-03-01 218.5179.9
2025-04-01 216181.1
2025-05-01 228.6182.5
2025-06-01 238.8184.1
2025-07-01 243185.6
2025-08-01 246.9187.1
2025-09-01 254.7188.8
2025-10-01 259.6190.6
2025-11-01 259.6192.3
2025-12-01 258.6193.8
2026-01-01 261.4195.5
2026-02-01 257197
2026-03-01 243.5198.3
2026-04-01 267.5199.8
2026-05-01 278.1201.6
2026-06-01 273.9203.2
2026-07-01 272.4204.7
Dolar jako globální likvidita (DXY) Většina světového financování běží v dolarech: silný dolar = utažené podmínky pro zbytek světa (tlak na rozvíjející se trhy), slabý dolar = uvolněné. Čárkovaně 52týdenní průměr.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumDolarový index (DXY)52týdenní průměr
2024-01-01 102.41103.4
2024-01-08 102.4103.4
2024-01-15 103.29103.43
2024-01-22 103.47103.46
2024-01-29 103.92103.48
2024-02-05 104.08103.48
2024-02-12 104.28103.49
2024-02-19 103.94103.47
2024-02-26 103.86103.45
2024-03-04 102.74103.42
2024-03-11 103.43103.41
2024-03-18 104.43103.44
2024-03-25 104.55103.48
2024-04-01 104.3103.52
2024-04-08 106.04103.61
2024-04-15 106.15103.69
2024-04-22 105.94103.77
2024-04-29 105.03103.85
2024-05-06 105.31103.9
2024-05-13 104.45103.92
2024-05-20 104.72103.93
2024-05-27 104.67103.94
2024-06-03 104.89103.97
2024-06-10 105.55104.03
2024-06-17 105.8104.09
2024-06-24 105.87104.14
2024-07-01 104.88104.19
2024-07-08 104.09104.27
2024-07-15 104.4104.34
2024-07-22 104.32104.39
2024-07-29 103.21104.41
2024-08-05 103.14104.42
2024-08-12 102.46104.4
2024-08-19 100.72104.34
2024-08-26 101.7104.29
2024-09-02 101.18104.21
2024-09-09 101.11104.13
2024-09-16 100.72104.04
2024-09-23 100.42103.93
2024-09-30 102.52103.86
2024-10-07 102.89103.79
2024-10-14 103.49103.74
2024-10-21 104.26103.69
2024-10-28 104.28103.68
2024-11-04 105103.66
2024-11-11 106.69103.72
2024-11-18 107.49103.8
2024-11-25 105.74103.84
2024-12-02 105.97103.88
2024-12-09 107103.97
2024-12-16 107.62104.08
2024-12-23 108104.21
2024-12-30 108.95104.33
2025-01-06 109.65104.47
2025-01-13 109.35104.59
2025-01-20 107.44104.67
2025-01-27 108.37104.75
2025-02-03 108.04104.83
2025-02-10 106.57104.87
2025-02-17 106.61104.92
2025-02-24 107.61105
2025-03-03 103.84105.02
2025-03-10 103.72105.02
2025-03-17 104.09105.02
2025-03-24 104.04105.01
2025-03-31 103.02104.98
2025-04-07 99.78104.86
2025-04-14 99.23104.73
2025-04-21 99.47104.6
2025-04-28 100104.51
2025-05-05 100.34104.41
2025-05-12 101.09104.35
2025-05-19 99.11104.24
2025-05-26 99.33104.14
2025-06-02 99.19104.03
2025-06-09 98.18103.88
2025-06-16 98.71103.75
2025-06-23 97.4103.59
2025-06-30 97.18103.44
2025-07-07 97.85103.32
2025-07-14 98.48103.2
2025-07-21 97.65103.07
2025-07-28 98.69102.99
2025-08-04 98.18102.89
2025-08-11 97.85102.8
2025-08-18 97.72102.75
2025-08-25 97.77102.67
2025-09-01 97.77102.61
2025-09-08 97.55102.54
2025-09-15 97.64102.48
2025-09-22 98.15102.43
2025-09-29 97.72102.34
2025-10-06 98.98102.27
2025-10-13 98.43102.17
2025-10-20 98.95102.07
2025-10-27 99.8101.98
2025-11-03 99.6101.88
2025-11-10 99.27101.73
2025-11-17 100.18101.59
2025-11-24 99.46101.47
2025-12-01 98.99101.34
2025-12-08 98.4101.17
2025-12-15 98.6101
2025-12-22 98.02100.81
2025-12-29 98.42100.61
2026-01-05 99.13100.4
2026-01-12 99.39100.21
2026-01-19 97.6100.02
2026-01-26 96.9999.8
2026-02-02 97.6399.6
2026-02-09 96.8899.42
2026-02-16 97.899.25
2026-02-23 97.6199.06
2026-03-02 98.9998.96
2026-03-09 100.3698.9
2026-03-16 99.6598.81
2026-03-23 100.1598.74
2026-03-30 100.0398.68
2026-04-06 98.6598.66
2026-04-13 98.198.64
2026-04-20 98.5198.62
2026-04-27 98.2198.58
2026-05-04 97.8498.54
2026-05-11 99.2798.5
2026-05-18 99.3298.5
2026-05-25 98.9198.5
2026-06-01 100.0798.51
2026-06-08 99.7598.54
2026-06-15 100.8598.58
2026-06-22 101.3698.66
2026-06-29 100.8698.73
2026-07-06 100.9798.79
2026-07-13 100.7598.84
2026-07-20 101.4798.91
2026-07-27 99.898.93
2026-08-03 99.698.96
2026-08-10 99.6798.99
2026-08-17 98.899.01
2026-08-24 99.799.05
2026-08-31 99.4399.08